» NFL Picks
Strategies To Make Better NFL Picks
When making successful NFL picks, strategy is crucial. The strategy to use depends on the type of pick one is trying to make. While there are many types of NFL picks, I will stick to the two most common. These are picking the straight up winner, and picking against the spread.
Picking the winner is by far the easiest pick to make when it comes to the NFL. Trends are very important and should be the first thing to consider. It's typically a little more difficult to do early in the season as there are usually more surprises early on. For example, let’s take the Lions and Colts. Before the 2011 season not many people expected the Lions to have only one loss through week 6. I don't remember anyone predicting at the time that the Colts would still be looking for their first win after a third of the season had passed. If the teams were to match up after seeing these trends, most people would expect the Lions to win. They would probably be right, but early in the season the likelihood of making the correct pick would have been much smaller. Trends are only part of the story, a second item to look at when picking the straight up winner is the point spread. Against the point spread, a favorite will win at close to a 50% clip. Remember, this is with points being subtracted from the score of the favorite. Most odds makers claim that the point spread comes into play between 15 and 18 percent of the time. If when making NFL picks for a straight up winner a person were to simply pick the favorite according to the point spread, they would be correct at a 65 to 68 percent rate.
Picking against the spread is a real challenge. Just by flipping a coin you should be right about half of the time. This is initially encouraging but moving past that 50% mark is very difficult. It would be wise at first to search for some free NFL picks. It can be surprising how often free NFL picks are correct. If a person can find any free NFL picks which are accurate over half the time, they have found something rare. Pay attention to teams with a large fan base. Points spreads after they are initially set are moved based on how much is being wagered on each team. Bettors tend to bet on their favorite team regardless of the spread. This causes teams like those in New York to be favored more than they should.
Finally, to make better picks, watch the games. This is simple and fun but many people get caught up too much with staring at numbers. You will often get a gut feeling which turns out to be correct simply because you have seen both teams play recently. You will also gain insight into things like team attitude and emotion. These are things which matter greatly in the NFL.
Picking the winner is by far the easiest pick to make when it comes to the NFL. Trends are very important and should be the first thing to consider. It's typically a little more difficult to do early in the season as there are usually more surprises early on. For example, let’s take the Lions and Colts. Before the 2011 season not many people expected the Lions to have only one loss through week 6. I don't remember anyone predicting at the time that the Colts would still be looking for their first win after a third of the season had passed. If the teams were to match up after seeing these trends, most people would expect the Lions to win. They would probably be right, but early in the season the likelihood of making the correct pick would have been much smaller. Trends are only part of the story, a second item to look at when picking the straight up winner is the point spread. Against the point spread, a favorite will win at close to a 50% clip. Remember, this is with points being subtracted from the score of the favorite. Most odds makers claim that the point spread comes into play between 15 and 18 percent of the time. If when making NFL picks for a straight up winner a person were to simply pick the favorite according to the point spread, they would be correct at a 65 to 68 percent rate.
Picking against the spread is a real challenge. Just by flipping a coin you should be right about half of the time. This is initially encouraging but moving past that 50% mark is very difficult. It would be wise at first to search for some free NFL picks. It can be surprising how often free NFL picks are correct. If a person can find any free NFL picks which are accurate over half the time, they have found something rare. Pay attention to teams with a large fan base. Points spreads after they are initially set are moved based on how much is being wagered on each team. Bettors tend to bet on their favorite team regardless of the spread. This causes teams like those in New York to be favored more than they should.
Finally, to make better picks, watch the games. This is simple and fun but many people get caught up too much with staring at numbers. You will often get a gut feeling which turns out to be correct simply because you have seen both teams play recently. You will also gain insight into things like team attitude and emotion. These are things which matter greatly in the NFL.
